Rick Rule's Silver Stocks
+ a deep-dive on a copper exploreco
Last Week on Resource Talks
Rick Rule’s Silver Stocks (+ a Surprising Opinion)
Looking for a Giant Copper Deposit in Peru with Coppernico Metals
Rick Rule’s Silver Stocks
Rick Rule needs no introduction at this point, but just briefly; he is a veteran resource investor and lender. He is best known for helping to build Sprott U.S. Holdings, running Rule Investment Media, and now launching Battle Bank. In this interview, we discussed silver’s shift from “hated” to merely “unhated” and Rick explained to me why he’s selling some of his exposure to speculative silver names while still holding higher-quality producers, developers, and streamers. He also layed out his sell discipline, defended the royalty/streaming model as poised for larger copper-linked deals, and detailed where he’d position in silver if he had to buy today. In the latter part of the conversation, we talked about the really hated nickel, platinum’s asymmetric setup, some of his gold portfolio strategies, the timing gap between precious and industrial metals cycles, and the obvious yet ignored capex/inflation math.
TLDR
Silver’s sentiment flipped, Rick Rule is taking profits.
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Silver has moved from “hated” to “unhated” which, in Rick Rule’s playbook, means the easy speculative money is largely behind us. He still sees upside and hints leadership may be rotating from gold to silver, but he’s trimmed roughly one-third to one-half of his speculative silver equities while holding higher-quality positions (he named Pan American, Wheaton) and select producers (he named Fresnillo, Peñoles, Buenaventura). Essentially, he’s just supplying stock into strength. Doing what the market makes easy for him and exiting explorecos with no resonable path to cash flow.Speculating is about probability/valuation discipline, not a chart tic.
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Exploration is about “answering unanswered questions.” Rick Rule assigns a probability, time, and value to a “yes,” and if the market grants the “yes” valuation before the answer exists, he sells and free-carries. He also reads financings as signals. For example, when juniors swap big chunks of equity for cash, management is telling you they value cash more than their own stock. The way Rick does it is to harvest a quarter to a third of his position when he’s been paid “too much, too fast.” He calls this the “point of no concern,” because he can let the rest ride without risking any of his initial capital.There is still value to be found in quality silver names, though not as obviously.
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I asked Rick what he would do if he must be long silver beta right now. He said he would favor high-quality developers such as (but not limited to) Abra Silver and Vizsla Silver. He added that he’d be looking for durable cash-flow platforms such as (but not limited to) Pan American and Wheaton Precious Metals. Rick’s said he was predisposed to Aya pending management’s rebuttal to a short report (which has already happened, btw). Jurisdictional risk is to be priced, not avoided. If you’re not in Mexico/Peru, you’re not really in silver. Yes, those jurisdictions have real risks, but they can be priced, according to Rick. On royalties and streamers, he disputes the “no more big deals” view. Copper’s $150–200bn build-out and sovereign equity ambitions should catalyze $1bn+ precious by-product streams, which he thinks is prime territory for Franco-Nevada and Wheaton.Nickel sulfides is hated now, platinum is starting to look asymmetric.
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Rick Rule prefers advanced nickel sulfide stories with real drill density over penny hopefuls. He mentioned Centaurus (Brazil) as a prospective tier-one, lowest-quartile cost asset, while acknowledging risk. He also noted Talon/Canada Nickel/FPX might be worth the look but didn’t have a strong opinion. Rick Rule’s nickel thesis is that Indonesia’s laterite externalities and energy intensity plus higher oil prices (which he expects), will lift nickel’s cost floor over a 2 to 3 year horizon. He invests on five-year clocks. In PGMs, he likes the skew. ICE demand persists, supply is concentrated (SA/Russia), and platinum’s tiny converter cost makes price inelastic.Precious bull now, industrial bull later.
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Rick sees a softer global economy delaying an industrials upcycle by 2 to 3 years even as long-term shortages loom (oil/gas/copper/nickel in 5 to 6 years). He believes inflation runs closer to 8 to 9%, compounding capex and raising incentive prices for capital-intensive mining operations (such as large copper porphyries). This makes him believe that long-life existing assets are undervalued. For gold Rick has also trimmed his juniors by 25 to 33% into liquidity, but structurally expects a ~3x nominal gold move over a decade as the purchasing power of the dollar erodes. He’s adding Franco/Wheaton and growing 12–15% IRR senior secured mine-build loans. Though briefly, Rick also mentioned that he is bullish on oil and he flaghed Exxon as an “underpriced cash machine”.
Looking for a Giant Copper Deposit in Peru
Coppernico Metals is a copper explorer focused on the Sombrero copper-gold district in Peru. In this interview with CEO Ivan Bebek, we covered CEO alignment and insider incentives, current runway and marketing stance, community/water status, why earlier operators missed it, how Sombrero stacks up against Las Bambas-style systems, the concrete grade/tonnage bar majors would care about, the realistic risks of this proposition, and the presence of strategic shareholders that anchor the story without dictating timing.
TLDR
CEO alignment and track record.
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Ivan Bebek is a discovery-first operator with 25+ years and past wins at Keegan/Cayden/Gold Standard. He’s all-in on Coppernico (non-exec elsewhere), owns ~3.7%, has written large personal checks, taken no bonus, and prioritizes pay for core technical staff. Teck (9.9%) and Newmont (~6%) on the register reflect asset quality rather than marketing.Sombrero has potential and it now needs proof.
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Ivan describes Sombrero as a district-scale copper-gold skarn/porphyry in Peru’s Eocene belt with unusually good logistics (road, power, water). Early drilling (20 holes) confirmed a mineralized skarn system but not yet ore-grade continuity. The the highest-conviction targets are Fierrazo and Nioc. Management’s ambition is multi-billion tonnes at ~0.5% Cu or ~0.5 Bt @ ~1%, but that needs vector-driven step-outs to be proven.Permitting is the gating item.
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49 pads were permitted, 20 were drilled. The company paused to expand permits onto the best targets (EIA-Sd for Fierrazo, separate path for Nioc). Community relations are challenging but Ivan cited long on-the-ground presence, jobs and ag programs, which he hopes will serve in his benefit. Water for drilling is available and hasn’t been an issue so far. Even with that in place, this is Peru. That means timelines remain uncertain until proven. Bebek told me that management’s aim is to be drilling priority targets next year, but he said he can’t stick a specific date to it.Funding plans.
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Cash on hand is approx. C$4.5m with approx C$4.5m of 30c warrants expected to come in if higher stock prices can be achieved. Ivan told me that he expects Coppernico to need up to US$6m to deliver a “market-obvious” discovery at Fierrazo/Nioc. However, the near-term focus is adding at least one U.S. asset (gold and/or copper-gold) to create year-round catalysts while permits advance. It’s not clear how much that asset might cost and/or how Coppernico would pay for it. They also expect to be ramping up marketing by 10 to 15% without resorting to sleazy tactics.Risk, discipline, and deal posture.
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The main pushback for Coppernico is the Peru permit timing. Bebek said that geology risk is now about hitting continuity through cover, not whether a system exists. Insiders own no royalties on the projects, G&A runs ~C$260k/month, land position has been trimmed/optimized, cash runway into mid-next year. Ivan added that they’re not looking for a JV early on because the target is to drill at least 60 holes, which he believes offers a clear value proposition for shareholders, so he wouldn’t want to give that away early on.
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I saw the crash coming. The gap up days in $SLV and $GLD with huge moves last weak were the sign.
Buying opportunities will come again. Wait and see what patterns for now.
Excellent synopsis! Valuable.